Forecasting of Post-Graduate Students’ Late Dropout Based on the Optimal Probability Threshold Adjustment Technique for Imbalanced Data

Artículo Materias > Ingeniería
Materias > Educación Universidad Europea del Atlántico > Investigación > Producción Científica
Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana México > Investigación > Producción Científica
Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana Puerto Rico > Investigación > Producción Científica
Universidad Internacional do Cuanza > Investigación > Artículos y libros Abierto Inglés The purpose of this research article was to contrast the benefits of the optimal probability threshold adjustment technique with other imbalanced data processing techniques, in its application to the prediction of post-graduate students’ late dropout from distance learning courses in two universities in the Ibero-American space. In this context, the optimization of the Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Network classifiers, together with different techniques, attributes, and algorithms (Hyperparameters, SMOTE, SMOTE_SVM, and ADASYN) resulted in a set of metrics for decision-making, prioritizing the reduction of false negatives. The best model was the Neural Network model in combination with SMOTE_SVM, obtaining a recall index of 0.75 and an f1-Score of 0.60. Likewise, the robustness of the Random Forest classifier for imbalanced data was demonstrated by achieving, with an optimal threshold of 0.427, very similar metrics to those obtained by the consensus of the three best models found. This demonstrates that, for Random Forest, the optimal prediction probability threshold is an excellent alternative to resampling techniques with different optimal thresholds. Finally, it is hoped that this research paper will contribute to boost the application of this simple but powerful technique, which is highly underrated with respect to data resampling techniques for imbalanced data. metadata Rodríguez Velasco, Carmen Lilí; García Villena, Eduardo; Brito Ballester, Julién; Durántez Prados, Frigdiano Álvaro; Silva Alvarado, Eduardo René y Crespo Álvarez, Jorge mail carmen.rodriguez@uneatlantico.es, eduardo.garcia@uneatlantico.es, julien.brito@uneatlantico.es, durantez@uneatlantico.es, eduardo.silva@funiber.org, jorge.crespo@uneatlantico.es (2023) Forecasting of Post-Graduate Students’ Late Dropout Based on the Optimal Probability Threshold Adjustment Technique for Imbalanced Data. International Journal of Emerging Technologies in Learning (iJET), 18 (04). pp. 120-155. ISSN 1863-0383

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URL Oficial: http://doi.org/10.3991/ijet.v18i04.34825

Resumen

The purpose of this research article was to contrast the benefits of the optimal probability threshold adjustment technique with other imbalanced data processing techniques, in its application to the prediction of post-graduate students’ late dropout from distance learning courses in two universities in the Ibero-American space. In this context, the optimization of the Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Network classifiers, together with different techniques, attributes, and algorithms (Hyperparameters, SMOTE, SMOTE_SVM, and ADASYN) resulted in a set of metrics for decision-making, prioritizing the reduction of false negatives. The best model was the Neural Network model in combination with SMOTE_SVM, obtaining a recall index of 0.75 and an f1-Score of 0.60. Likewise, the robustness of the Random Forest classifier for imbalanced data was demonstrated by achieving, with an optimal threshold of 0.427, very similar metrics to those obtained by the consensus of the three best models found. This demonstrates that, for Random Forest, the optimal prediction probability threshold is an excellent alternative to resampling techniques with different optimal thresholds. Finally, it is hoped that this research paper will contribute to boost the application of this simple but powerful technique, which is highly underrated with respect to data resampling techniques for imbalanced data.

Tipo de Documento:	Artículo
Palabras Clave:	optimal likelihood threshold,, imbalanced data, student dropout prediction, resample techniques, distance learning courses
Clasificación temática:	Materias > Ingeniería Materias > Educación
Divisiones:	Universidad Europea del Atlántico > Investigación > Producción Científica Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana México > Investigación > Producción Científica Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana Puerto Rico > Investigación > Producción Científica Universidad Internacional do Cuanza > Investigación > Artículos y libros
Depositado:	27 Feb 2023 23:30
Ultima Modificación:	21 Oct 2024 23:30
URI:	https://repositorio.unic.co.ao/id/eprint/6067

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Forecasting of Post-Graduate Students’ Late Dropout Based on the Optimal Probability Threshold Adjustment Technique for Imbalanced Data

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